Former finance minister and Tendências Consultoria Integrada partner Milesón da Nóbrega disagrees with financial market pressure on President-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) to immediately indicate who will be the next finance minister. “I think it’s a demand from the financial market and much of the press that Lula nominate finance minister now. We are still at the stage where the transition team is gathering numbers, trying to figure out ways and making suggestions. I don’t think the presence of the next Treasury Secretary is necessary,” Mileson said in an interview. CNNbroadcast this Sunday the 27th.

He recalled that in 2002, on the eve of Lula’s first term, the process was similar: the Minister of Finance was appointed only on December 10, three weeks before taking office. “I think it will go something like this. We may have a Treasury Secretary late this week or early next week,” Mileson predicted.

Mileson says it’s important to identify problems in the transition group, especially in the fiscal area. “Without mandatory spending cuts, Lula’s government has no chance of success. This is because 93% of the federal government’s core spending, set to rise to 95%, is related to mandatory spending, including staff costs, social security, health care, education, and social transfer programs. No country can succeed if it has only 5-7% of the budget for the implementation of growth programs,” he said. “Not specifying the Minister of Finance now will clarify the situation. It is necessary not only to have a Minister of Finance, but also a clear understanding of this problem, ”Mileson said.

According to the former minister, signs indicate that the transition team has not yet determined how to establish a new fiscal anchor, as the spending ceiling, he said, has lost its effectiveness with the irregularities committed in the Jair government. Bolsonaro (PL). “What we saw in the statements of the transitional members are ideas to increase spending. I didn’t see anything around creating a fiscal anchor. Lula raised even more uncertainties about this process in a post-election speech in which he promised more funds for these areas,” Meilson said. The former minister called “mistaken” Lula’s view that a spending cap is unnecessary because the country knows it is fiscally responsible. “The tax sphere needs rules. I think the speech needs to be greatly improved, especially after the appointment of the Minister of Finance, ”he said.

transitional PEC

Mileson sees Senator Tasso Gereissati’s (PSDB-CE) proposal to increase the 2023 spending cap by BRL 80 billion as the “best alternative” to making the new Bolsa Família viable within the spending ceiling, given the government’s proposal for an increase of around BRL 200 billion.

The former minister argues that the Bolsa Família cannot be classified as an exceptional measure for the cost ceiling. “I think it was done wrong. The spending ceiling may be released in emergency situations such as earthquakes and floods, or in the event of unpredictable costs such as provisional measures. Bolsa Família is not a temporary or emergency expense: this program has been around for almost twenty years, we know the price and the number of participants. Therefore, there is no need to talk about an exception, except for a very short period with a credible counterparty (from the government),” he justified, referring to possible countermeasures to reduce mandatory costs. “Be that as it may, it creates uncertainty. This is a disaster,” he concluded.