Coffee beans in Sotteville-le-Rouen, France

Marcelo Teixeira

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The global coffee supply balance will rise from a deficit of 2.17 million bags in 2022/23 (April-March) to a surplus of 3.74 million bags in 2023/24 as a partial recovery is expected production in Brazil. This is stated in the report of the consulting company hEDGEpoint.

She forecasts Brazilian coffee production in 2023/24 to be between 64.9 and 68.9 million bags, compared to 59 million bags planned for 2022/23.

hEDGEpoint coffee analyst Natalia Gandolfi said in a report that despite Brazil recovering next season compared to the previous two crops that were affected by frost and drought, production will still be 14% lower than a record 72 years. 6 million bags in the 2020/21 season.

Gandolfi said many coffee plantations in Brazil are still recovering from pruning.

Consultants forecast Arabica coffee production in 2023/24 to be between 44.4 and 46.4 million bags, up from 36 million bags in 2022/23.

Robusta coffee production is expected to be between 20.5 million and 22.5 million bags, up from 23 million bags in 2022/23.

Despite a surplus in 2023/24, the stock-to-use ratio will improve only marginally, the report says, as global inventories are expected to remain historically low, especially in the second quarter of next year.

So far, only a few estimates of the new coffee season in Brazil have been published.

Dutch bank Rabobank expects production to rise by at least 8% to 68.5 million bags, while consulting firm SpillingTheBeans expects 50 to 56 million bags.

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